Fuzzy Predictions

Science fiction has always had that annoying way of predicting this sort of thing.

To prove my point, I need go no further than directing you to this post that I read this morning talking about computer algorithms being used to predict which parolees are most likely to re-offend once they are out of prison, and thus used to direct which parolees receive extra supervision.

Scary stuff.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not an advocate of people incarcerated for violent crimes being treated with delicacy. Nor, though, am I an advocate for anyone being stripped of their basic human dignity, and that includes those behind bars. They are still human, and I find it tragic that our system doesn’t treat them as such.

I think, in fact, that that’s the core of my problem with this: the removal of the human factor. I love technology. I love what it does for us. I’ve said before, though, that there’s a line where it stops doing things for us, and starts to make us do things for it. If the tool assumes the role of the person using the tool, where does this leave the person?

I don’t think that human behavior can be reduced and quantified into mathematical formulae. We are way, way too complex for that. Our unpredictability, in fact, is part of what makes us endearingly human.

And what really concerns me about the topic at hand is that the software’s predictions are being used in place of the human parole officer’s instincts. Those people have been doing this for a while. They develop good instincts, the same as any of us do in our respective fields. Those instincts, I would argue, are far more valuable than a computer’s prediction.

To say nothing of the fact that I would rather our country’s parolees’ re-integration into society not be supervised by computer software in lieu of a person.

Talk about recidivism…

Please Don’t Automate That…

While Karen oftentimes shakes her head at how quickly I adopt new features and new toys, in my defense, there are many from which I opt out.  I was thinking about that this morning as I pondered how to spend the rest of an iTunes gift card that’s burning a proverbial hole in my digital wallet. Those thoughts sort of collided with recent reticence about a re-design of  iTunes of which I’ve heard mixed reactions (and haven’t quite gotten around to installing myself), and I remembered that nifty little functionality built into iTunes called Genius.

I’ve never used that.

It’s not that I’m not used to recommendations generated by some sort of computer algorithm, and I suspect that neither are you, that is if you’ve ever received one of those emails from Amazon recommending stuff based upon your previous purchases. Perhaps its because these algorithms fail miserably in their attempt to mathematically predict human behavior (which I like the sound of), or perhaps its just because my tastes in reading and music are so eclectic, but these recommendations never hit the mark for me. The books and music and even the applications that I purchase are almost always the result of a recommendation from a friend, acquaintance, or, at the very least, listening to someone talk about it on a show or podcast somewhere. I don’t buy things based off of “recommended for you” sorts of automated emails because they’re almost never interesting to me.

That said, can anyone recommend some good music? Thanks.

Air Waves

Karen and I typically find ourselves travelling by air about once every year, on average. That has gotten quite interesting since our daughter joined us, but it is still my preferred way to travel. Even though our travelling is not for business, I’ve still found myself, especially during the rush of holiday travelling, trying to get out a last-minute communication or squeezing in one last phone call just as we take our seats and have to turn everything off. I’ve been quite annoyed on several flights when I have to stop the movie I’m watching 20 minutes before seemingly necessary because the flight has technically began its final descent. I don’t get the whole “no electronic devices” rule during that time period.

Apparently, there’s discrepancy about the entire concept of not using mobile communication devices on flights altogether, and, if we’re to believe this article, it’s gaining traction as officials call into question the fact that our “increasingly mobile society” can’t use our phones and tablets while in the air for data transmissions.

I’m going to be honest, though…I sort of enjoy the fact that I can’t take calls and swap emails while in the air. I like the opportunity to let calls go to voicemail and my inbox fill up a bit. While I don’t see the validity of not being able to keep reading an ebook or watching a movie just because we’re taking off or landing, I really don’t want everyone on their phones in that confined space. I’m not even thrilled about the idea of in-flight wi-fi. There are few places in which our bodies get a break from those flying radio signals, in any case.

In short, there’s something nice about quiet.

In a perfect world (well, a perfect world for me), I hope that some flexibility comes from these studies without full permissiveness of mobile phone use being adopted during flights. Having some peace and quiet is nice, and, while I may feel differently about some loss of productivity were I to travel more for business, I understand that a lot of business travelers enjoy the chance to disconnect for a change, as well.

I haven’t really had the opportunity over the past couple of years, but I used to carve out time to unplug every summer. The best times were at the beach with Karen. Even a couple of days disconnected from the Internet is quite refreshing. I’m looking forward to my next chance to do that.

Connectedness is amazing, but there can be too much of a good thing. I hope that we can keep what peace and quiet we have during air travel, because we honestly need whatever peace and quiet we can find.

You’re now free to move about the cabin.

Is There a Doctor in the House?

If there’s anything that marks the age in which we live (does that make me sound as old as I think it does…?), its the pervasiveness and ease with which we can access whatever information we choose. Random questions can be searched and answered on the spot, weather forecasts can be immediately known, music and books instantly available. And, while we’ve come to take it for granted, I can recall when being able to have a phone conversation in my car was a new and wondrous luxury, and I really appreciate the amazing progress we’ve made as a society.

That said, reading this today gave me pause. Its not that the concept of crowd-sourcing one’s medical condition isn’t a really phenomenal idea…it is. And, certainly, this writer seems to have received positive results by doing so. What’s more, I think that its the natural evolution of (dare I use such a cliche term as) the information age. Though I’m moving out of the health care field, I’ve seen the constant movement over the last decade of transitioning all record-keeping to digital format, and I don’t think that one must be a futurist to see this as an easy extension of that.

Pushing aside for a moment how privacy laws will struggle to evolve at a reasonable enough pace to accommodate something like this, though, I had a moment of strong push-back after my initial positive reaction to reading this. While certainly none of us are islands, I also think that there’s such a thing as too much input from too many people. With the thought of publicly airing my medical history, I reach that thresh-hold pretty quickly in my head.

Part of me sees this as a great use of our technological capabilities to seek expert advice from those that we would not otherwise be able to contact. Part of me screams in fear that this will become yet another privacy-wrenching expectation of the “extrovert ideal” that dominates our cultural functioning.

And, part of me wonders if, God forbid, I ever were to receive similar news, I wouldn’t pursue any option available, including some version of this very strategy.

This brave new world of ours just keeps getting more interesting, doesn’t it?